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「川化股份股吧」贝莱德 | 为什么增长溢价可能会持续?

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川化股份股吧


  「川化股份股吧」贝莱德 | 为什么增长溢价可能会持续?
 
 
  
 
 
  贝莱德全球配置团队认为,相对于价值(value)而言,增长(growth)似乎持续了很长时间,这并不是因为增长的方式特别丰富,而是因为价值非常便宜。如果经济增长放缓,投资者可能继续看好那些与经济状况关系不大的,盈利增长稳定的少数公司。
 
 
  growth.jpg
 
 
  图|Pixabay
 
 
  Why the growth premium is likely to stay|Blackrock
 
 
  价值干旱仍在持续。以罗素1000增长指数(Russell 1000 growth Index)衡量的大盘股今年迄今的涨幅超过了罗素1000价值指数(Russell 1000 value Index)衡量的股票约450个基点(即4.5%),同时,过去12个月的涨幅二者相当。
 
 
  经济增长最近的优异表现符合后危机时代的标准。仅看价格回报(price returns),自2010年以来,全球经济以每年350个基点的速度增长。这种增速不仅意义重大,而且始终持续。在过去5年里,价值(value)只在2016年有意义地跑赢了增长。
 
 
  The value drought persists.Large cap growth,measured by the Russell 1000 Growth Index,is beating value,measured by the Russell 1000 Value Index,by approximately 450 basis points(bps,or 4.5%points)year-to-date and by a similar amount during the past 12 months.
 
 
  Growth’s recent out-performance conforms to the post-crisis norm.Focusing on price returns,since 2010 growth has outperformed value by an average of approximately 350 bps a year.The out-performance has not only been meaningful,it has been consistent.During the past five years value has only outperformed meaningfully on one occasion,2016.
 
 
  不仅仅是盈利Not just about earnings
 
 
  正如其他人所指出的,经济增长的连胜在很大程度上可以归因于强劲的盈利增长,尤其是来自科技公司的盈利增长。也就是说,多重扩张——为获得一美元收益需要付出更多——也起到了一定的作用。自2011年市场触底以来,罗素1000增长指数(Russell 1000 Growth Index)的追踪市盈率(P/E)上升了约65%。相比之下,价值指数的市盈率仅增长了40%。
 
 
  但尽管成长型股票并不特别便宜,它们却并不特别的昂贵。估值(Valuations)略低于长期平均水平。换句话说,相对于价值而言,增长似乎持续时间很长,这一事实并不是因为增长的方式特别丰富,而是因为价值非常便宜。
 
 
  As others have noted,a large part of growth’s winning streak can be attributed to stellar earnings growth,particularly from technology companies.That said,multiple expansion,i.e.paying more for a dollar of earnings,has played a part as well.Since the 2011 market bottom,the trailing price-to-earnings(P/E)ratio for the Russell 1000 Growth Index is up roughly 65%.In contrast,the value index’s P/E ratio has expanded by a more modest 40%.
 
 
  But while growth stocks are not particularly cheap,it is not obvious that they are expensive.Valuations are slightly below the long-term average.In other words,the fact that growth looks stretched relative to value is not a function of growth being particularly rich but value being very cheap.
 
 
  要使倍数趋同,经济需要变得更加强劲For multiples to converge,the economy needs to get stronger
 
 
  经济可以部分解释增长的溢价。一种长期以来的趋势是,当投资者对经济增长感到担忧时,他们更偏爱增长,而非价值。原因是,即使在经济疲软时期,成长型公司也能实现有机的盈利增长。
 
 
  经济增长与估值之间的这种联系在收益率曲线(即短期和长期债券收益率之差)与风格倍数(Style multiples)之间的关系中非常明显。由于投资者习惯于将较平的收益率曲线视为经济脆弱的一个迹象,因此当曲线较平时,你往往期待增长倍数将相对较高。历史数据也恰好表明了这一点。自1995年以来,收益率曲线的形状解释了增长与价值倍数之间约50%的差异(见图1)。
 
 
  Growth’s premium to value can be partly explained by the economy.When investors are worried about economic growth,as they have been for much of the recovery,they tend to favor growth as a style.The reason:Even in a weak economy,growth companies can generate organic earnings growth.
 
 
  This connection between economic growth and valuations is very visible in the relationship between the yield curve,i.e.the difference between short and longer-term bond yields,and style multiples.As investors have been conditioned to view a flatter yield curve as a sign of economic fragility,you would expect growth multiples to be relatively high when the curve is flat.Historically,that is exactly what you find.Since 1995,the shape of the curve has explained roughly 50%of the variation in growth vs.value multiples(see Chart 1).
 
 
  6.jpg
 
 
  需要明确的是,这种关系显然是非线性的。当曲线接近平均水平(大约100个基点)时,微小的变化并不特别显著。最重要的时刻是当曲线接近于零时,这引发了人们对衰退的担忧。在这些时期,投资者通常为成长型股票支付的溢价最高。
 
 
  如今,随着增长预期放缓、贸易摩擦上升、曲线趋近于零,增长溢价看上去正合适。只要投资者准备迎接增长放缓的世界,他们可能就会继续看好那些无论经济状况如何都能实现盈利增长的少数公司。
 
 
  To be clear,the relationship is decidedly non-linear.When the curve is close to average–roughly 100 bps–small changes are not particularly significant.When it matters the most is when the curve gets close to zero,raising recession concerns.In these periods investors have typically paid the largest premium for growth stocks.
 
 
  Today,with growth expectations moderating,trade frictions rising and the curve close to zero,growth’s premium looks about right.As long as investors are bracing for a slower growth world,they are likely to continue to put a premium on those few companies that can deliver earnings growth regardless of the economy.
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